Boris and Kathy's FX Blog www.bktraderfx.com

Today's Email Alerts:

Alert #5 Aussie and USD/CAD

Indeed, sometimes technicals does foreshadow fundamentals and in the case of the Aussie, both retail sales AND the trade balance disappointed. As we mentioned earlier, we were at engagement and just returned to the office to check the quotes. We hope you jumped on the weak data when it came out at 7:30pm and sold either the Aussie or AUD/CAD as we recommended.

We still like the AUD/USD short but want to sell at a .7735 limit with a .7765 stop. Should that order to reached, our first target will be .7712. Second target will be .7687

We were stopped out of our second USD/CAD lot for a +20 profit, but are happy about it since we banked a total of 45 pips on the entire trade.

Alert # 4 Statistical Significance - Australian Dollar

For those who are reading our new e-book, we have a strategy called the Extension Fade which is based upon statistical significance. The Australian dollar is setting up perfectly for our Extension Fade strategy. This is a pure technical, low risk play.

The clearest Extension Fade is in AUD/CAD. The currency pair has printed a positive candle for 8 trading days now - over the past 10 years, we have only seen 5 periods where the AUD/CAD has strengthened for 8 trading days with only 1 out of those 5 extending beyond 8 days.


The AUD/USD is also doing a similar thing. The currency pair has rallied for seven straight days. In the past 10 years, there were only 14 times that the move has extended for 7 days, with only 3 of those 14 lasting for longer than 7 days. We credit our technical analyst Jamie Saettele for looking that far back for us.
Therefore we are looking to short one of these pairs with the day's high as the stop. AUD/USD is our preferred play because of the lower spread, smaller risk and possibilit of a firm payrolls on Friday. However we do want to point out that AUD/CAD does have a greater statistical significance.

Due to a prior engagement, we will NOT be in the office to watch Australian data come out at 7:30pm EST (Retail sales and trade balance). Should the data come out weak, we recommend a short with the today's high as the stop. As soon as we get back to the offices later that evening (probably by 10pm EST), we will send out an update on what we think.
These statistically rare events are hard to pass up.

Alert #3 Moving Stop on USD/CAD

EMAIL TIME STAMP: 12:30pm The heads up may have come a bit too quickly, but USD/CAD is now trading at 1.1330, and we want to make sure we lock in profits on the second lot as well.

Move your stop on the second lot to +20 at 1.1310, should the currency continue to rally to 1.1350, we will be bumping up the stop once again to 1.1325 (+35). There will not be an email alert on this, so watch the markets. There will however be an alert if it goes far above 1.1350 (and probably a take profit =) ) or a confirmation that we are fully out of the trade.

Alert #2 T1 on USD/CAD

We hit T1 (1.1315) on USD/CAD for +25 pips. Move your stop to breakeven on the second half of the position at 1.1290. Our second target is 1.1380.

Heads up, should USD/CAD continue to rally, we plan on moving up our stop.

Alert #1 Long USD/CAD

The Canadian dollar first shot higher on the announcement that the country will begin to tax Canadian income trusts. The USD/CAD is retracing on weaker US data, but this should be very negative for the Canadian dollar over the next few days.

We are therefore recommending a long position here at 1.1290, with a stop at 1.1250. First target is 1.1315, second target is 1.1380.