Boris and Kathy's FX Blog www.bktraderfx.com
11/30/2006
Today's Email Alerts
Alert # 3
GBP/USD Chart
Well the question of the day seems to be – will the GBP/USD go to 2.000? If the US data continues to deteriorate like it has been it’s certainly a strong possibility. Today’s 49 print on Chicago PMI was shocking – the first contractionary reading since 2003 and if tomorrow’s ISM follows suit the FX market will only have one thing on its mind – the coming of the US recession. Of course manufacturing is only a small part of US economy and services so far, have held their own – but no one is going to wait for a confirmation. Everyone will assume that manufacturing leads to the downside and services will follow. That why tomorrow’s ISM may be the dollar bulls last chance.
The strength of the pound therefore is really not inherent to the unit but rather a function of US weakness. In fact today’s UK retail data indicates that UK consumer may be very tired going into the Xmas season setting up the possibility of the worst UK Xmas in 25 years. But for now waiting for a turn in the pair is like waiting for Godot.
EUR/JPY Chart
Meanwhile, tonight blizzard of JPY data may be critical to setting the tone for the yen. This week’s blowout IP number put talk of a December BOJ rate hike right back on the table. The only reason for BOJ reticence is the weak state of consumption in Japan. Therefore any upside surprise to today’s labor, CPI and Household spending reports could really seal the deal and turn market sentiment squarely in yen’s favor. See the dailyfx calendar for all the details of the upcoming releases. We’ll be watching too.
Over and out.
Alert # 2 Stopped out of Short CHF/JPY
We got stopped out of CHF/JPY at 96.65 for -37 pips on each lot. It seems that the market does not want to give up on its trend.
Alert #1 Short CHF/JPY
Divergent data from Japan and Switzerland makes us want to go short CHF/JPY. Japanese Industrial Production created a whopping surprise to the upside printing 1.6% vs. -0.4% expected and put talk of BoJ rate hike in December right back on the plate. Meanwhile Switzerland most important economic statistic - the Kof index of leading economic indicators fell for the 5th month in a row suggesting that Swiss growth has peaked and the SNB may only raise once and halt.
So we want to go short CHF/JPY (Currently 96.28) Stop 96.65 T1 is 96.07 T2 is 9547
Alert # 3
GBP/USD Chart
Well the question of the day seems to be – will the GBP/USD go to 2.000? If the US data continues to deteriorate like it has been it’s certainly a strong possibility. Today’s 49 print on Chicago PMI was shocking – the first contractionary reading since 2003 and if tomorrow’s ISM follows suit the FX market will only have one thing on its mind – the coming of the US recession. Of course manufacturing is only a small part of US economy and services so far, have held their own – but no one is going to wait for a confirmation. Everyone will assume that manufacturing leads to the downside and services will follow. That why tomorrow’s ISM may be the dollar bulls last chance.
The strength of the pound therefore is really not inherent to the unit but rather a function of US weakness. In fact today’s UK retail data indicates that UK consumer may be very tired going into the Xmas season setting up the possibility of the worst UK Xmas in 25 years. But for now waiting for a turn in the pair is like waiting for Godot.
EUR/JPY Chart
Meanwhile, tonight blizzard of JPY data may be critical to setting the tone for the yen. This week’s blowout IP number put talk of a December BOJ rate hike right back on the table. The only reason for BOJ reticence is the weak state of consumption in Japan. Therefore any upside surprise to today’s labor, CPI and Household spending reports could really seal the deal and turn market sentiment squarely in yen’s favor. See the dailyfx calendar for all the details of the upcoming releases. We’ll be watching too.
Over and out.
Alert # 2 Stopped out of Short CHF/JPY
We got stopped out of CHF/JPY at 96.65 for -37 pips on each lot. It seems that the market does not want to give up on its trend.
Alert #1 Short CHF/JPY
Divergent data from Japan and Switzerland makes us want to go short CHF/JPY. Japanese Industrial Production created a whopping surprise to the upside printing 1.6% vs. -0.4% expected and put talk of BoJ rate hike in December right back on the plate. Meanwhile Switzerland most important economic statistic - the Kof index of leading economic indicators fell for the 5th month in a row suggesting that Swiss growth has peaked and the SNB may only raise once and halt.
So we want to go short CHF/JPY (Currently 96.28) Stop 96.65 T1 is 96.07 T2 is 9547
posted by BKTrader # 11/30/2006 07:37:00 PM 
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