Boris and Kathy's FX Blog www.bktraderfx.com
10/01/2006
Friday's Email Alerts (09/29/06)
CADJPY Short Alert
Earlier we had said that we are looking at a CADJPY short and the more that we think about it, the more we like it. CADJPY has barely responded to the turn in oil. We are sure there are tons of speculators in the CAD as there was in oil. We also expect the strong loonie to begin to have a drag on upcoming economic data. As a big exporter, canada not only hurts from a drop in the prices of its core export, but also in an appreciation of its currencies .
As for the JPY, this weekends Tankan (Sun) could be strong. If so, that would certainly help rally the currency, which is already seeing upward pressure from MoF comments and Yuan appreciation.
As such, we are shorting CADJPY at market (105.80) with a stop at 106.40.
First target is 105.18, if that is reached, move your stop to breakeven Second target is 104.45.
Setting up for test of range lows in EUR/USD
After the disappointing German retail sales and Eurozone CPI numbers this morning, the market's sentiment has turned Euro bearish. The uptick in this morning's US PCE deflator number is adding to the currency's weakness. Although we want to point out that US personal spending grew by the weakest pace since November, the market is ignoring that at the moment. We see a test of 1.2625 and possibly 1.2600. Beyond that however, losses may remain limited. Watch out, if the Dow begins to top out, the US dollar could bottom as well. We are also watching CADJPY - Appears to be a double top. All cad pairs are beginning to turn
CADJPY Short Alert
Earlier we had said that we are looking at a CADJPY short and the more that we think about it, the more we like it. CADJPY has barely responded to the turn in oil. We are sure there are tons of speculators in the CAD as there was in oil. We also expect the strong loonie to begin to have a drag on upcoming economic data. As a big exporter, canada not only hurts from a drop in the prices of its core export, but also in an appreciation of its currencies .
As for the JPY, this weekends Tankan (Sun) could be strong. If so, that would certainly help rally the currency, which is already seeing upward pressure from MoF comments and Yuan appreciation.
As such, we are shorting CADJPY at market (105.80) with a stop at 106.40.
First target is 105.18, if that is reached, move your stop to breakeven Second target is 104.45.
Setting up for test of range lows in EUR/USD
After the disappointing German retail sales and Eurozone CPI numbers this morning, the market's sentiment has turned Euro bearish. The uptick in this morning's US PCE deflator number is adding to the currency's weakness. Although we want to point out that US personal spending grew by the weakest pace since November, the market is ignoring that at the moment. We see a test of 1.2625 and possibly 1.2600. Beyond that however, losses may remain limited. Watch out, if the Dow begins to top out, the US dollar could bottom as well. We are also watching CADJPY - Appears to be a double top. All cad pairs are beginning to turn
posted by BKTrader # 10/01/2006 08:29:00 PM 
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